Lifetime Extension, Repowering or Decommissioning? Decision Support for Operators of Ageing Wind Turbines

In Germany, more than one third of the installed wind energy capacity will leave the feed-in tariff funding between 2021 and 2025. Operators of affected turbines are therefore increasingly concerned with the design of profitable end-of-funding strategies. This requires feasibility analyses of both lifetime extension and repowering options and entails the subsequent challenge to determine the optimal lifetime extension and corresponding repowering timing. To support operators and other stakeholders dealing with wind turbines' end-of-life issues, this study presents a geographic information system that permits evaluating optimal end-of-funding strategies at different spatial scales reaching down to detailed analyses on individual turbine level. The decision support system processes topographic, wind, turbine, and finance data in an integrated system of resource simulations, spatial planning analyses and economic viability assessments. Case-study results show that a uniform end-of-funding strategy cannot be applied to all ageing turbines. Conducted sensitivity analyses rather indicate that the best strategy highly depends on various turbine-specific aspects, especially the location, type and maintenance costs as well as exogenous factors, including the developments of electricity spot market prices and tendered feed-in premiums. In light of latest trends regarding the exogenous factors, lifetime extension and repowering potentials increase. However, the results also indicate that dismantling, disposal and recycling of numerous ageing turbines will become a major challenge for the wind energy sector in the next decade. © 2019 Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd

Realizing availability-oriented business models in the capital goods industry

The validation results of a concept for the development of availability-oriented business models are addressed. The developed concept contains five steps by means of primarily design thinking methods. For the validation, the developed concept is applied at Lenze, a German innovative manufacturer of drive and automation solutions for materials handling, handling technology, packaging industry, robotics and automotive industry. Therefore, a use case is defined, business models, extended value networks, persona analyses and customer journey are elaborated. The results show the applicability of the concept for the development of availability-oriented business models for the capital goods industry. © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V

Measurement of jet suppression in central Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=2.76 TeV

The transverse momentum(p(T)) spectrum and nuclear modification factor (R-AA) of reconstructed jets in 0-10% and 10-30% central Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN) = 2.76 TeV were measured. Jets were reconstructed using the anti-k(T) jet algorithm with a resolution parameter of R = 0.2 from charged and neutral particles, utilizing the ALICE tracking detectors and Electromagnetic Calorimeter (EMCal). The jet p(T) spectra are reported in the pseudorapidity interval of \eta(jet)\ 5 GeV/c to suppress jets constructed from the combinatorial background in Pb-Pb collisions. The leading charged particle requirement applied to jet spectra both in pp and Pb-Pb collisions had a negligible effect on the R-AA. The nuclear modification factor R-AA was found to be 0.28 +/- 0.04 in 0-10% and 0.35 +/- 0.04 in 10-30% collisions, independent of p(T), jet within the uncertainties of the measurement. The observed suppression is in fair agreement with expectations from two model calculations with different approaches to jet quenching. (C) 2015 CERN for the benefit of the ALICE Collaboration. Published by Elsevier B.V.Peer reviewe

Centrality dependence of inclusive J/\u3c8 production in p-Pb collisions at 1asNN = 5.02 TeV

We present a measurement of inclusive J/\u3c8 production in p-Pb collisions at 1asNN = 5.02TeV as a function of the centrality of the collision, as estimated from the energy deposited in the Zero Degree Calorimeters. The measurement is performed with the ALICE detector down to zero transverse momentum, pT, in the backward ( 124.46 < ycms < 122.96) and forward (2.03 < ycms < 3.53) rapidity intervals in the dimuon decay channel and in the mid-rapidity region ( 121.37 < ycms < 0.43) in the dielectron decay channel. The backward and forward rapidity intervals correspond to the Pb-going and p-going direction, respectively. The pT-differential J/\u3c8 production cross section at backward and forward rapidity is measured for several centrality classes, together with the corresponding average pT and pT2 values. The nuclear modification factor is presented as a function of centrality for the three rapidity intervals, and as a function of pT for several centrality classes at backward and forward rapidity. At mid- and forward rapidity, the J/\u3c8 yield is suppressed up to 40% compared to that in pp interactions scaled by the number of binary collisions. The degree of suppression increases towards central p-Pb collisions at forward rapidity, and with decreasing pT of the J/\u3c8. At backward rapidity, the nuclear modification factor is compatible with unity within the total uncertainties, with an increasing trend from peripheral to central p-Pb collisions

Centrality dependence of high-pT D meson suppression in Pb-Pb collisions at 1asNN = 2.76 TeV

The nuclear modification factor, RAA, of the prompt charmed mesons D0, D+ and D 17+, and their antiparticles, was measured with the ALICE detector in Pb-Pb collisions at a centre-of-mass energy 1asNN = 2.76 TeV in two transverse momentum intervals, 5 < pT < 8GeV/c and 8 < pT < 16GeV/c, and in six collision centrality classes. The RAA shows a maximum suppression of a factor of 5\u20136 in the 10% most central collisions. The suppression and its centrality dependence are compatible within uncertainties with those of charged pions. A comparison with the RAA of non-prompt J/\u3c8 from B meson decays, measured by the CMS Collaboration, hints at a larger suppression of D mesons in the most central collisions

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66–2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17–2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5–137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0–146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2–144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2•1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27•1% (95% UI 26•4–27•8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67•2 years (95% UI 66•8–67•6) in 2000 to 73•5 years (72•8–74•3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50•7 million (49•5–51•9) in 2000 to 56•5 million (53•7–59•2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9•6 million (9•1–10•3) in 2000 to 5•0 million (4•3–6•0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25•7%, from 6•2 billion (6•0–6•3) in 2000 to 7•7 billion (7•5–8•0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58•6 years (56•1–60•8) in 2000 to 63•5 years (60•8–66•1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990�2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk�outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk�outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk�outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95 uncertainty interval UI 9·51�12·1) deaths (19·2% 16·9�21·3 of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12�9·31) deaths (15·4% 14·6�16·2 of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253�350) DALYs (11·6% 10·3�13·1 of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0�9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10�24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25�49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50�74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens